热点丨黄金突破1800美元,下个目标2000美元?



上周,黄金自从2011年以来第一次突破了1800美元一盎司的高位,并在近几日持续稳定在1800美元以上。现在,Goldman Sachs 和Bank of America 的分析师都说黄金价钱判断在18个月内黄金很有可能能到2000美元一盎司或者更高。如果达到的话,这个价钱将突破2011年1920美元的高点,创造黄金价位的历史新高。那为什么黄金市场会在现在会在这么一个涨幅的环境? 



基本面分析

黄金独特之处是它既是能对冲风险的投资标的也是一个作珠宝首饰的原材料。在原材料方面,世界黄金协会说在2020年第一季度市场对首饰的需求与同期相比减少39%。这会对黄金的价位产生下行压力。作为对冲风险的投资标的,在经济危机的时候,黄金会被看作为一个避险投资工具。当人们对货币失去信心时,对黄金的投资需求会提高。 



新冠病毒带来的经济萧条会因为整体经济需求的减少,而造成市场的短期通缩和更多的不确定性,从而增加人们对黄金的投资需求。同时,很多国家政府为了应对新冠病毒加大了政府开支,也使得国家背负的债务大幅增加,央行有可能会因此而实行扩张的货币政策和财政政策,比如美联储在3月份宣布了7千亿美元的货币宽松政策,通常会带来通货膨胀。而黄金有对冲通货膨胀的作用,因此也会催生投资者对黄金的需求。




黄金价格的影响

黄金价格突破1800美元/盎司也影响了澳洲的黄金股。

投资者对黄金行业股票的需求已经使S&P/ASX所有普通黄金分类指数在过去一个月中,跑赢大盘20%以上,黄金股从三月份的低谷涨了近70%,分析师Robert Guy认为这与黄金价格的不断走高有着密切的联系。



总结

由于各国央行都进一步踏入了非常规货币政策的未知领域, COVID-19的二次爆发也摧毁了主要经济体的信息,对于V型复苏的希望也受到了打击,美元现货金价升至每盎司1800美元的9年高位,充分显示了投资者的不安情绪。

前储备银行经济学家认为,支持贵金属前景的关键因素是通货膨胀率上升的风险,通货膨胀率是实际收益率的两个输入之一,是金价的主要指标。

在这次经济低迷时期,我们实际上没有看到任何经济通缩的趋势,虽然价格指数逐月下降,但与去年同期相比并没有下降。与之相反的是,央行为了扶持经济度过疫情危机,他们在尽可能降低利率,有的还会印制钞票以刺激经济,因此存在中期通胀率上升的风险。

专家们认为,考虑到通货膨胀后,现金和债券等低风险资产的获利潜力下降,预计金价将继续上涨。Credit Suisse市场策略师Damien Boey表示:“2,000美元/盎司的金价不会是黄金价格的天花板。”



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