热点丨政府提出税制改革,能否提振受到冲击的房地产市场?



截止目前,自COVID-19对全球产生巨大影响已有4个多月,当前经济环境恶化,多国边境封锁导致全球贸易停滞。此前由于社交隔离的影响, 企业纷纷关门停业,失业率的上升也导致消费水平的降低,这样的经济环境促使了政府加快税务改革政策的商讨。上周三发布的报告中显示税务改革将包括取消印花税以及提高消费税来替代政府收入来源,印花税的取消会直接刺激房屋的交易,由于房屋购置变得更加轻松,也或将提高劳动力的流动性。这次的税务改革将会给未来购房者提供一个选择,包括一次性支付高额的印花税或每年支付较低的土地税。



房产市场的三个支柱

房产市场的三个支柱分别是就业率、人口增长和消费者信心。

根据五月澳洲数据统计局的报告显示,自疫情爆发以来失业率已超过7%,也是自金融危机以来的失业率新高,在未来的半年里失业率也可能受到第二波疫情而增加。


随着维洲第二波疫情的爆发,社交隔离和州界的封锁等政策将再次实施,这也将影响澳大利亚其他各州对疫情控制的政策。现今三个因素都受到了打击,失业率不断提高,边境封锁导致移民人口以及留学生人口不断减少,经济衰退导致人们的收入下滑,房产市场稳定价格的三大支柱似乎一一倒塌。



房地产价格出现下跌

根据CoreLogic的数据显示,房产价格已经出现两个月的连续下跌,两个月的累计下降比率已超过1.3% 。



尽管四大银行都允许延期最多六个月偿还抵押贷款,但是经济在六个月内很难恢复,并且在六个月到期后,贷款人是否有能力继续偿还贷款也是未知的,这也会影响到房产最后的结算,未来市场上将有可能出现大量无法偿还贷款而被没收的房屋。根据CoreLogic的数据显示,截止5月的前三个月中,悉尼与墨尔本有超过50%的公寓出现比合约价还低的房屋估值。



房屋贷款

Rise High Financial Solutions的总经理Marissa Schulze表示,那些失业或者过去几个月收入减少的房屋买家在未来还有可能没有资格贷款,能够贷款的人数减少,购房需求也会减少,这也会对房产市场价格产生下行风险。预计未来一年里将会出现持续的房屋价格下降。


房价的下跌也意味着新的银行贷款会根据最新市场估值而进行借贷,如果买家所购房产的市场价格出现下跌,他们需要偿还的贷款数额也会减少。但经济萧条也使得民众手中的流动资金减少,也会导致买家在交完定金后没有充足的资金完成后续的付款,买家将不仅无法拿回定金,还有可能要承担开发商因无法按相同价格出售房屋的损失。


如果取消印花税在一定程度上能够刺激房屋交易,那么房屋购买者就可以准备更少的初始购房款,这也将提高二手房的转手率。Industry Super的首席经济学家Stephen Anthony表示税务改革中现金流税代替公司收入税可以提高投资以及税务收入,当市场上出现更多投资选择,房屋市场的交易也将提高。



总结

房屋市场在未来一年里将会受到经济影响的冲击,虽然政府出台相关政策以保护房屋市场,但是下半年经济市场受到全球疫情的影响将依然出现下滑现象,这也将对近一年住宅房屋价值呈现一定的影响,尤其是公寓的市场将面临更大的价值缩水。一旦新的税务改革政策实行,房屋交易市场一定也会得到刺激,但如果经济恢复过慢,房屋市场的需求没有增长的话 ,未来住宅房屋价值也很难有快速的提升。




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