探讨|Oil Search季报出炉,股价为何不为所动?

2020年07月23日

从1月中旬开始,Oil Search股价开始大幅度的下跌,从$7.65跌至3月下旬的低点$1.8。之后公司股价一直处于小幅的上涨趋势,但截至7月21日,股价还不及1月高点的一半。7月21日,Oil Search公布了其Q2季报,又引发了市场的关注。



Oil Search (ASX: OSH)

Oil Search Limited 在巴布亚新几内亚从事石油,天然气的勘探,开发和生产,建立于1929年。公司同时在ASX和巴布亚新几内亚上市,公司目前规模约为US$120亿,其中17.6%由巴布亚新几内亚政府控制。主要生产业务是Kutubu, Moran, SE Mananda, Gobe 和Hides。据统计,2006年时其生产产品占巴布亚新几内亚当年GDP的13%。


石油需求减少及减产未达成统一

由于OPEC和俄罗斯迟迟未达成减产协议,石油价格自一月以来就一直呈现下降的趋势。在不减产的情况下,全球石油的供给量就已超过预测的需求量,而Covid-19又进一步降低了全球的能源需求。各国实施的封城禁令和边境封锁,使得交通和工厂的活动减少,航空旅行的需求极具下降,导致石油的需求量大大减少。

因此也使得今年三月的石油价格跌幅创下了自1991年以来的最大值,布伦特原油价格已从年初的每桶US$67/桶跌落至四月的近US$25/桶。全球有多家石油公司决定关闭油井,以避免超低价出售石油。

在多番斡旋之后,4月OPEC和俄罗斯终于达成减产协议,自此石油价格也开始缓慢回升,目前布伦特原油价格约为US$45/桶。

季报解读

在第一季度报告中,Oil Search的石油产量增长14%,达到自2018年巴布亚新几内亚地震以来的最高水平。由于COVID-19的影响和能源价格下降,Oil Search第二季度的收入大大减少,本季度下降了25%以上。尽管该公司的总产量只比上一季度下滑1%至729万桶油当量,销量仅下降1%至679万桶油当量,但营收却下降了26%,从3.594亿美元下降到2.662亿美元。本季度的石油和凝析油平均价格从每桶49.51美元跌到每桶23.05美元。

第二季度的碳氢化合物产生的总收入减少了27%,为2.58亿澳元,这反映了石油价格的大幅下降以及现货市场上销售的LNG比例上升。然而,钻机租凭收入,基础设施关税以及电力销售较为稳定,为820万澳元。Oil Search首席执行官Keiran Wulff 表示PNG油田表现超出预期,尽管石油和天然气发电(GTE)项目关闭,公司仍然有望实现2020年的生产目标。

此外,商品价格暴跌迫使Oil Search在4月筹集了116万澳元的新股本,来解决市场对其资产负债表的担忧,同时公司也表示,为了可持续的成本稍减和在不损害安全性或可靠性的前提下实现运营效率,到年底时,Oil Search的全球员工将减少约为34%。



总结

对于石油整体的行业来说,需求峰值会比预期更早到来,在接下来的几个月里,石油价格的走势可能会有点好转。但此前Oil Search也宣布了一笔高达US$4亿美元的勘探资产减记,主要与巴布亚新几内亚的勘探许可证有关,再加上与政府谈判的破裂,在巴布亚新几内亚扩张液化气业务的前景也变得难以估量。作为一家开展多项能源开采业务的公司,每条业务线的发展都会对公司产生重要影响,因此投资者需在做决定前谨慎考量。

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